← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 38% | 43% | 2.62 | value: +12% |
| Coventry win | 33% | 29% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Oxford −0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.79 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Jordan Shipley · Coventry |
| 35' | ⚽ | Zain Westbrooke · Coventry |
| 41' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · Oxford |
| 56' | ⚽ | Matt Godden · Coventry |
| 62' | 🟨 | Anthony Forde · Oxford |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jamie Mackie · Oxford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Josh Ruffels · Oxford |
| 74' | 🟨 | Zain Westbrooke · Coventry |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Fankaty Dabo · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamie Mackie · Oxford |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 548.00 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| Callum O'Hare · Coventry |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Fankaty Dabo · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 913.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1450.91 | 1484.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.48 | 28.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 1.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 70.25 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| league points | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.75 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.75 | 57.33 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.92 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.67 |
| squad age | 24.64 | 24.87 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.35 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |