← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 39% | 41% | 2.51 | value: +4% |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 35% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Milton Keynes Dons +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 18' | ⚽ | Kieran Agard · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rhys Healey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 52' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Accrington |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mark Hughes · Accrington |
| 71' | 🟨 | Callum Johnson · Accrington |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dean Lewington · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sam Nombe · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 81' | 🟨 | Wilson Carvalho · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ross Sykes · Accrington |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| coach days |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Sam Finley · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2525.00 |
| 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1390.93 | 1377.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.31 | 5.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.75 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.25 | 72.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.75 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.25 | 5.75 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.25 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |