← EFL League One 2019-20 · Tue, Aug 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Johnson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 50% | 55% | 1.94 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
| Coventry win | 23% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Coventry −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Jordy Hiwula · Coventry |
| 10' | ⚽ | Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 35' | 🟨 | Fankaty Dabo · Coventry |
| 38' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 43' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Portsmouth |
| 56' | ⚽ | Gareth Evans · Portsmouth |
| 59' | 🟨 | Fankaty Dabo · Coventry |
| 59' | 🟥 | Fankaty Dabo · Coventry |
| 71' | 🟨 | Gervane Kastaneer · Coventry |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Matt Godden · Coventry |
| 78' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| coach days | 810.00 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| Gervane Kastaneer · Coventry |
| 78' | 🟥 | Gervane Kastaneer · Coventry |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tom Naylor · Portsmouth |
| 86' | ⚽ | Michael Rose · Coventry |
| 88' | 🟨 | John Marquis · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 902.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1561.19 | 1473.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.81 | 4.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.67 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.33 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.67 | — |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | — |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.33 | — |
| squad age | 25.94 | 26.01 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | — |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | — |
| travel km | — | 186.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |