← EFL League One 2018-19 · Sat, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D Drysdale
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Barnsley win | 60% | 51% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.29 | value: +19% |
| Bristol Rvs win | 18% | 21% | 5.42 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.