← EFL League One 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B Toner
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Luton win | 68% | 76% | 1.42 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.64 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 12% | 7% | 8.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.