← EFL League One 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D Drysdale
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.74 | value: +6% |
| Bury win | 25% | 23% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 3 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.