← EFL League One 2016-17 · Tue, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Millwall win | 37% | 37% | 2.64 | fair |
| Rochdale win | 33% | 37% | 2.94 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 14 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.