← EFL League One 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S Duncan
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 84% | 71% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 18% | 8.77 | value: +58% |
| Yeovil win | 5% | 11% | 20.81 | value: +138% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.