← EFL League One 2014-15 · Tue, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M Heywood
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 56% | 45% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.86 | value: +5% |
| Fleetwood Town win | 19% | 28% | 5.16 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.