← EFL League One 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F Graham
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Carlisle win | 55% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Exeter win | 19% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 18 |
| 11 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.