← EFL League One 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A Bates
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sheffield United win | 70% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Leyton Orient win | 11% | 14% | 9.00 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 4 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.