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Stockport 0–3 Tranmere

← EFL League One 2009-10 Β· Sat, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: T Kettle

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tranmere win57%1.62
Draw24%4.00
Stockport win19%5.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots13
5On target7
6Corners7
7Fouls7
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricStockportTranmere
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.803.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.373.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.18
dominance (last 5)0.360.57
elo1263.531440.18
elo momentum (last 5)-45.5310.38
form points (last 5)0.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.521.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
league points25.0048.00
league rank24.0020.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win13.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.561.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.004.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.6013.40
state index-2.41-0.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.20