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Brentford 2–1 Tranmere

← EFL League One 2009-10 Β· Tue, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D Phillips

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Brentford win45%2.10
Draw28%3.40
Tranmere win27%3.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots15
4On target9
4Corners9
6Fouls16
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBrentfordTranmere
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.801.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.562.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.23
dominance (last 5)0.350.54
elo1512.521421.87
elo momentum (last 5)17.29-3.53
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points57.0044.00
league rank11.0021.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg1.361.05
shot diff avg (last 5)-7.803.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.4013.40
state index-0.04-0.65
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40