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Huddersfield 4–3 Walsall

← EFL League One 2009-10 Β· Tue, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D Webb

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win63%1.50
Draw24%4.00
Walsall win13%7.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
18Shots6
8On target5
11Corners3
9Fouls7
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldWalsall
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
coach days4000.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.807.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.472.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.16
dominance (last 5)0.570.43
elo1531.851443.59
elo momentum (last 5)10.41-12.64
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.20
league points68.0054.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg1.661.32
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.409.20
state index0.15-0.71
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20