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Norwich 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons

← EFL League One 2009-10 Β· Sat, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K Friend

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich win59%1.57
Draw25%3.75
Milton Keynes Dons win16%6.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots8
10On target5
6Corners4
19Fouls22
2Yellow cards8
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorwichMilton Keynes Dons
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)1.004.00
coach days252.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.200.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.302.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.29
dominance (last 5)0.480.63
elo1622.901486.03
elo momentum (last 5)1.43-38.24
form points (last 5)10.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
league points85.0057.00
league rank1.0010.00
matches since blank8.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win0.005.00
rest days5.005.00
season ppg2.131.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.204.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.6011.80
state index0.52-0.83
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40