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Huddersfield 2–0 Oldham

← EFL League One 2009-10 Β· Tue, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Taylor

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win60%1.57
Draw25%3.80
Oldham win16%6.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots8
5On target3
4Corners4
14Fouls4
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHuddersfieldOldham
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
coach days3993.004812.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.401.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)8.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.353.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.16
dominance (last 5)0.560.52
elo1541.261416.33
elo momentum (last 5)-13.65-11.60
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.15
league points65.0043.00
league rank7.0018.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg1.671.13
shot diff avg (last 5)2.200.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.409.60
state index-0.10-0.51
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80