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Tranmere 3–1 Norwich

← EFL League One 2009-10 Β· Fri, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: E Ilderton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich win52%1.83
Draw27%3.50
Tranmere win21%4.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
19Shots10
9On target4
7Corners5
14Fouls6
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricTranmereNorwich
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)1.800.60
coach daysβ€”244.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.20
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.04
dominance (last 5)0.380.57
elo1425.391642.11
elo momentum (last 5)-11.8134.06
form points (last 5)5.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
league points38.0082.00
league rank21.001.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days5.965.96
season ppg1.032.16
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.402.60
shots for avg (last 5)5.4010.80
state index-0.831.08
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00