Brighton 2–2 Southampton

← EFL League One 2009-10 · Thu, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S Tanner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Southampton win	41%	2.38
Brighton win	31%	3.10
Draw	28%	3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1	Half-time score	1
9	Shots	11
4	On target	6
6	Corners	5
13	Fouls	16
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Brighton	Southampton
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.10	0.10
cards avg (last 5)	1.40	1.80
coach days	—	274.00
comeback rate (last 20)	0.05	0.00
congestion 21d	4.00	4.00
conversion (last 5)	0.17	0.14
corner diff avg (last 5)	-1.40	1.80
corners against avg (last 5)	6.40	4.80
corners for avg (last 5)	5.00	6.60
corners volatility (last 10)	2.39	3.16
defensive leak (last 5)	0.03	0.15
dominance (last 5)	0.63	0.61
elo	1492.07	1593.24
elo momentum (last 5)	39.83	6.54
form points (last 5)	10.00	9.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	1.40	0.60
goals against avg (last 5)	0.20	1.00
goals for avg (last 5)	1.60	1.60
goals volatility (last 10)	1.17	1.85
h2 goals (last 10)	0.70	0.90
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.40	0.50
league points	47.00	63.00
league rank	13.00	7.00
matches since blank	3.00	2.00
matches since clean sheet	0.00	1.00
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	4.96	8.96
season ppg	1.24	1.70
shot diff avg (last 5)	3.60	4.20
shots for avg (last 5)	9.40	11.40
state index	0.69	0.48
travel km	—	91.90
venue ppg (last 5)	1.80	1.60