← EFL League One 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C Webster
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Swindon win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 166.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.95 | 3.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1423.19 | 1452.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.76 | -3.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 45.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.20 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |