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Peterboro 1–1 Cheltenham

← EFL League One 2008-09 Β· Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: R Shoebridge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Peterboro win72%1.28
Draw19%5.25
Cheltenham win9%11.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots4
3On target2
15Corners1
8Fouls11
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroCheltenham
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.30
cards avg (last 5)0.801.20
coach days283.004451.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.19
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.007.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.913.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.10
dominance (last 5)0.500.41
elo1624.511337.35
elo momentum (last 5)41.3417.29
form points (last 5)15.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
league points81.0031.00
league rank2.0024.00
matches since blank13.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg1.980.78
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.206.80
state index1.03-0.80
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60