← EFL League One 2008-09 · Tue, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J Moss
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hereford win | 38% | 2.50 |
| Brighton win | 34% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 25 |
| 2 | On target | 12 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 4 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hereford | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1378.69 | 1376.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.62 | -4.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 33.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.20 |
| state index | -1.34 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |