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Oldham 0–2 Tranmere

← EFL League One 2008-09 Β· Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: G Laws

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oldham win43%2.20
Tranmere win29%3.30
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots7
7On target1
6Corners6
8Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricOldhamTranmere
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)1.600.60
coach days4431.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.002.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.18
dominance (last 5)0.420.57
elo1501.131511.45
elo momentum (last 5)-33.474.92
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points58.0059.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win3.001.00
rest days7.004.00
season ppg1.571.55
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.802.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.009.40
state index-0.81-0.10
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80