⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Swansea 4–1 Leyton Orient

← EFL League One 2007-08 Β· Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: R Lewis

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win59%1.53
Draw25%3.60
Leyton Orient win16%6.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
12Shots2
10On target1
4Corners7
5Fouls7
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaLeyton Orient
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)2.801.00
coach days450.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.807.60
corners volatility (last 10)4.433.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.40
elo1600.921400.45
elo momentum (last 5)-16.86-37.86
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
league points86.0057.00
league rank2.0013.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win1.006.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.951.30
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.40
state index0.02-1.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.80