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Swansea 1–2 Bournemouth

← EFL League One 2007-08 Β· Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M Haywood

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win65%1.40
Draw22%4.33
Bournemouth win12%7.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots12
7On target5
4Corners7
7Fouls7
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaBournemouth
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
coach days429.008953.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.242.81
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.480.44
elo1628.601415.68
elo momentum (last 5)-3.3021.37
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.45
league points82.0045.00
league rank1.0019.00
matches since blank13.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days6.966.96
season ppg2.051.10
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.409.60
state index0.36-0.30
travel kmβ€”177.60
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60