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Gillingham 2–1 Luton

← EFL League One 2007-08 Β· Tue, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: P Melin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gillingham win47%1.91
Draw26%3.40
Luton win26%3.60

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
19Shots9
11On target4
7Corners2
13Fouls12
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricGillinghamLuton
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)1.400.20
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.801.60
corners against avg (last 5)8.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.406.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.593.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.13
dominance (last 5)0.520.59
elo1357.991377.94
elo momentum (last 5)-18.4933.37
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
league points40.0043.00
league rank23.0022.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days2.962.96
season ppg1.001.07
shot diff avg (last 5)1.003.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.0011.60
state index-0.82-0.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20