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Leyton Orient 0–3 Carlisle

← EFL League One 2007-08 Β· Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K Hill

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leyton Orient win38%2.40
Carlisle win34%2.62
Draw28%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
10Shots19
7On target9
3Corners5
10Fouls13
3Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeyton OrientCarlisle
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)0.800.40
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.608.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.05
dominance (last 5)0.410.45
elo1452.961569.97
elo momentum (last 5)2.8631.16
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points56.0068.00
league rank10.003.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.471.89
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.0010.80
state index-0.350.51
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.60