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Swansea 3–6 Blackpool

← EFL League One 2006-07 Β· Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Marriner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Swansea win39%2.37
Blackpool win34%2.62
Draw26%3.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
5Shots13
4On target7
5Corners5
10Fouls7
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSwanseaBlackpool
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)1.801.40
coach days93.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.33
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.562.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.12
dominance (last 5)0.650.50
elo1544.841579.21
elo momentum (last 5)30.6156.34
form points (last 5)11.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.33
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
league points72.0080.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.601.78
shot diff avg (last 5)8.000.40
shots for avg (last 5)17.009.40
state index0.871.03
travel kmβ€”247.70
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.40