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Bristol City 3–1 Rotherham

← EFL League One 2006-07 Β· Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M Russell

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bristol City win72%1.25
Draw18%5.00
Rotherham win10%9.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
24Shots10
13On target6
11Corners3
13Fouls9
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBristol CityRotherham
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)1.600.60
coach days9255.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.001.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.007.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.301.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.18
dominance (last 5)0.540.52
elo1587.781362.43
elo momentum (last 5)-3.77-13.06
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points82.0048.00
league rank3.0021.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win1.004.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.821.07
shot diff avg (last 5)2.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6011.40
state index0.42-0.91
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80