Swansea 3–0 Port Vale

← EFL League One 2006-07 · Mon, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L Probert

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Swansea win	56%	1.61
Draw	25%	3.60
Port Vale win	18%	5.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2	Half-time score	0
20	Shots	6
13	On target	4
6	Corners	7
15	Fouls	9
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Swansea	Port Vale
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.10	0.10
cards avg (last 5)	2.60	1.60
coach days	67.00	—
comeback rate (last 20)	0.00	0.00
congestion 21d	3.00	3.00
conversion (last 5)	0.11	0.22
corner diff avg (last 5)	0.40	2.20
corners against avg (last 5)	4.20	4.60
corners for avg (last 5)	4.60	6.80
corners volatility (last 10)	2.46	2.04
defensive leak (last 5)	0.10	0.19
dominance (last 5)	0.56	0.55
elo	1517.99	1450.41
elo momentum (last 5)	19.83	6.23
form points (last 5)	10.00	7.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	0.60	0.60
goals against avg (last 5)	0.60	1.60
goals for avg (last 5)	1.20	2.20
goals volatility (last 10)	1.05	1.73
h2 goals (last 10)	0.50	0.80
h2h win rate (last 5)	0.30	0.70
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.40	0.30
league points	62.00	54.00
league rank	8.00	12.00
matches since blank	0.00	0.00
matches since clean sheet	0.00	2.00
matches since win	2.00	2.00
rest days	2.00	2.00
season ppg	1.51	1.32
shot diff avg (last 5)	2.80	3.20
shots for avg (last 5)	11.00	13.60
state index	0.29	-0.20
venue ppg (last 5)	1.40	0.80