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Chesterfield 1–1 Doncaster

← EFL League One 2006-07 Β· Wed, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Woolmer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Doncaster win37%2.50
Chesterfield win35%2.62
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots5
5On target2
4Corners9
16Fouls13
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricChesterfieldDoncaster
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)1.600.80
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.403.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.102.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.14
dominance (last 5)0.490.56
elo1370.951483.41
elo momentum (last 5)-44.48-44.01
form points (last 5)0.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
league points39.0054.00
league rank23.009.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win6.002.00
rest days5.004.00
season ppg1.031.42
shot diff avg (last 5)0.402.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.6010.80
state index-1.46-0.74
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.60