⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Carlisle 1–1 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2006-07 Β· Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: S Mathieson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Carlisle win48%1.90
Draw27%3.30
Huddersfield win24%3.75

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots10
6On target6
6Corners8
14Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCarlisleHuddersfield
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)2.002.40
coach daysβ€”2877.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)5.892.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.21
dominance (last 5)0.490.50
elo1477.481445.29
elo momentum (last 5)-8.15-22.29
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points52.0048.00
league rank11.0015.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.411.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.8011.20
state index-0.28-0.54
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40