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Chesterfield 1–2 Milton Keynes Dons

← EFL League One 2005-06 Β· Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M Jones

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chesterfield win38%2.40
Milton Keynes Dons win36%2.62
Draw27%3.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots9
3On target6
2Corners8
9Fouls7
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricChesterfieldMilton Keynes Dons
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
cards avg (last 5)0.600.80
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.208.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.592.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.12
dominance (last 5)0.460.50
elo1421.741402.07
elo momentum (last 5)-7.1614.63
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.270.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
league points56.0046.00
league rank14.0023.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days4.005.00
season ppg1.301.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.2010.00
state index-0.72-0.36
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.20