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Bournemouth 1–1 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2005-06 Β· Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Hall

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield win37%2.50
Bournemouth win35%2.62
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots13
3On target3
4Corners7
11Fouls19
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBournemouthHuddersfield
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)1.001.80
coach days8232.002541.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.332.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.29
dominance (last 5)0.430.50
elo1448.241512.23
elo momentum (last 5)27.75-17.40
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
league points51.0068.00
league rank17.004.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
rest days4.007.00
season ppg1.241.66
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.808.60
state index-0.04-0.31
travel kmβ€”324.60
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00