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Sheffield Weds 0–0 Stockport

← EFL League One 2004-05 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: �G Hegley

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sheffield Weds win69%1.33
Draw19%5.00
Stockport win12%8.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots1
7On target0
7Corners2
1Fouls4
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSheffield WedsStockport
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
cards avg (last 5)1.400.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.751.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.220.14
dominance (last 5)0.440.29
elo1501.551283.21
elo momentum (last 5)-43.29-35.36
form points (last 5)2.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.080.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
league points68.0025.00
league rank7.0024.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.008.00
matches since win6.008.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg1.580.58
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.60-9.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.206.40
state index-0.74-1.97
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60