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Milton Keynes Dons 1–2 Bristol City

← EFL League One 2004-05 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: �D Drysdale

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Milton Keynes Dons win39%2.37
Bristol City win35%2.60
Draw26%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
21Shots16
13On target12
8Corners3
7Fouls10
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMilton Keynes DonsBristol City
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)1.801.20
coach days—8513.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.05
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.202.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.450.50
elo1434.551521.97
elo momentum (last 5)-3.69-14.84
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.83
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
league points45.0063.00
league rank22.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.051.47
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.801.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.2010.60
state index-0.45-0.05
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40