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Doncaster 2–0 Hartlepool

← EFL League One 2004-05 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: �P Melin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hartlepool win38%2.37
Doncaster win35%2.60
Draw27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots9
6On target4
6Corners8
10Fouls7
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDoncasterHartlepool
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)1.600.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.270.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.532.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.14
dominance (last 5)0.500.55
elo1499.721526.17
elo momentum (last 5)9.5324.69
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.641.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
league points61.0070.00
league rank12.004.00
matches since blank6.005.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.008.00
season ppg1.421.63
shot diff avg (last 5)1.201.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.0011.60
state index0.050.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00