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Hartlepool 3–0 Sheffield Weds

← EFL League One 2004-05 Β· Fri, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: E Evans

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hartlepool win41%2.20
Sheffield Weds win32%2.80
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots12
7On target7
6Corners9
9Fouls17
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHartlepoolSheffield Weds
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)0.601.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.18
dominance (last 5)0.600.42
elo1511.421516.30
elo momentum (last 5)-4.23-29.56
form points (last 5)6.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.45
league points67.0068.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win2.005.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg1.601.62
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.607.40
state index-0.10-0.61
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20