⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Bournemouth 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons

← EFL League One 2004-05 Β· Mon, Mar 28, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Hall

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bournemouth win55%1.61
Draw25%3.60
Milton Keynes Dons win19%4.80

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots10
9On target6
7Corners2
16Fouls15
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBournemouthMilton Keynes Dons
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
cards avg (last 5)0.802.20
coach days7849.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.12
corner diff avg (last 5)2.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.242.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.11
dominance (last 5)0.520.50
elo1505.121438.12
elo momentum (last 5)-1.446.98
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.23
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
league points60.0041.00
league rank6.0021.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win1.003.00
rest days8.962.96
season ppg1.581.05
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.009.00
state index-0.09-0.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20