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Blackpool 1–1 Doncaster

← EFL League One 2004-05 Β· Sat, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: L Mason

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackpool win44%2.10
Doncaster win29%3.10
Draw27%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots17
7On target10
5Corners12
9Fouls12
0Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBlackpoolDoncaster
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)1.600.80
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)9.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.983.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.500.55
elo1462.111489.24
elo momentum (last 5)30.9912.69
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.29
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
league points45.0052.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.003.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.251.41
shot diff avg (last 5)0.401.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.8010.00
state index0.200.13
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40