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Barnsley 3–3 QPR

← EFL League One 2003-04 Β· Mon, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Wiley

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
QPR win37%2.50
Barnsley win34%2.62
Draw29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots13
9On target9
6Corners11
11Fouls20
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarnsleyQPR
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)1.602.80
coach daysβ€”1166.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.600.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.064.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.550.56
elo1457.921602.82
elo momentum (last 5)31.28-14.79
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
league points58.0075.00
league rank10.002.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days2.002.00
season ppg1.411.83
shot diff avg (last 5)1.802.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.209.20
state index0.170.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20