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Wycombe 2–1 Port Vale

← EFL League One 2003-04 Β· Sat, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: B Curson

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Port Vale win38%2.40
Wycombe win34%2.70
Draw28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
5Shots12
5On target8
10Corners3
17Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWycombePort Vale
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
coach days4994.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.802.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.68
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.17
dominance (last 5)0.420.58
elo1379.791485.99
elo momentum (last 5)18.6420.12
form points (last 5)6.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
league points31.0060.00
league rank24.006.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
rest days6.964.00
season ppg0.791.54
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.202.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.008.40
state index-0.60-0.01
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80