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Port Vale 5–1 Huddersfield

← EFL League One 2002-03 Β· Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: P Joslin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Port Vale win42%2.10
Huddersfield win31%3.00
Draw27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
7Shots14
6On target8
2Corners7
16Fouls18
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPort ValeHuddersfield
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
coach daysβ€”1456.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.007.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.10
dominance (last 5)0.350.54
elo1409.221430.20
elo momentum (last 5)11.7715.21
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points50.0044.00
league rank18.0022.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.002.00
rest days5.005.00
season ppg1.141.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.602.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2011.60
state index-0.54-0.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60