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Northampton 0–3 Stockport

← EFL League One 2002-03 Β· Fri, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Kaye

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Northampton win37%2.50
Stockport win36%2.50
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
4Shots5
1On target4
5Corners6
9Fouls18
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorthamptonStockport
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
cards avg (last 5)0.800.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.21
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.402.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.662.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.30
dominance (last 5)0.380.51
elo1343.101409.65
elo momentum (last 5)-15.7640.62
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
league points38.0048.00
league rank24.0018.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.0011.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg0.901.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)5.808.20
state index-1.34-0.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20