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Wigan 0–1 Plymouth

← EFL League One 2002-03 Β· Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: M Cooper

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Wigan win59%1.50
Draw26%3.50
Plymouth win15%6.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
6Shots6
1On target4
7Corners2
8Fouls14
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWiganPlymouth
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
coach days727.002858.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.14
corner diff avg (last 5)4.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)8.606.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.652.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.20
dominance (last 5)0.640.68
elo1670.611501.84
elo momentum (last 5)-14.240.62
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.78
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.35
league points86.0054.00
league rank1.0010.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg2.211.38
shot diff avg (last 5)6.0010.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8018.40
state index0.830.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00