← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 44% | 2.15 |
| Bristol City win | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Bristol City −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Luke Cundle · Stoke |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tyrese Campbell · Stoke |
| 45' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
| 49' | ⚽ | Million Manhoef · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 155.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1575.42 | 1620.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.31 | 20.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 53.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.51 |
| solidity v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 27.76 |
| state index | 0.39 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.61 |