← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Davies
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 44% | 2.18 |
| Rotherham win | 28% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.49 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Rotherham +0.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Jordan Hugill · Rotherham |
| 38' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Phillips · Cardiff |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tom Eaves · Rotherham |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ollie Tanner · Cardiff |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Eaves · Rotherham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Arvin Appiah · Rotherham |
| 63' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jordan Hugill · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| coach days | 33.00 | 338.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1411.05 | 1541.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.54 | -19.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.60 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| league points | 24.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.47 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.94 | 28.24 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.33 | 1.05 |