← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 54% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.25 |
| Watford win | 23% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Middlesbrough −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.51 |
| Under | 36% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Matthew Pollock · Watford |
| 28' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Latte Lath · Middlesbrough |
| 33' | 🟨 | Finn Azaz · Middlesbrough |
| 73' | ⚽ | Wesley Hoedt · Watford |
| 78' | ⚽ | Alex Bangura · Middlesbrough |
| 84' | ⚽ | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 581.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1671.62 | 1596.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.21 | 7.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 66.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.11 | 25.97 |
| state index | 0.66 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.66 |