← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 57% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.40 |
| Southampton win | 20% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −1 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Leeds −1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.86 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 21' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
| 33' | 🟨 | Wilfried Gnonto · Leeds |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · Southampton |
| 35' | ⚽ | Will Smallbone · Southampton |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jan Bednarek · Southampton |
| 72' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ilia Gruev · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Rothwell · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 308.00 | 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1759.43 | 1699.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -55.66 | -29.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| league points | 90.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 7.69 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.42 | 2.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.84 | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 319.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.69 |