← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 55% | 1.74 |
| Stoke win | 23% | 4.33 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stoke −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under | 36% | 2.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Tyrese Campbell · Stoke |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luke Cundle · Stoke |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jack Stephens · Southampton |
| 44' | 🟨 | David Brooks · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 301.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1714.89 | 1559.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.52 | 5.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| league points | 84.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.10 | 0.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 26.66 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.41 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 237.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.39 |