← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 53% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 |
| Cardiff win | 22% | 4.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Middlesbrough +0.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.78 |
| Under | 45% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Matthew Clarke · Middlesbrough |
| 49' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Middlesbrough |
| 56' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Latte Lath · Middlesbrough |
| 60' | ⚽ | Alexander Gilbert · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Bowler · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 331.00 | 574.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1556.79 | 1656.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.41 | 15.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| league points | 62.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 24.11 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 369.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.05 |